Conway Jarvis

CJ Update – April 1, 2021

The Markets in Q1 Reflect Broad Economic Expansion Ahead The first quarter came to a close this week, leaving in its wake a fading narrative of runaway inflation that had served as media fodder the past two weeks. The results for Q1 confirm a significant shift in market leadership. The NASDAQ index, last year’s darling, trails both the S&P 500 and the DOW30 by more than half as the Cyclicals, issues that typically lead a broadening economic recovery, posted upper…

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CJ Update – March 19, 2021

The Fed Has Spoken, Is Anyone Listening? Last year’s index inequality continues to unwind as investors move from the pandemic-assisted, stay-at-home, growth stocks to the recovery-assisted Cyclicals. It’s been a persistent theme in recent weeks that comes as no surprise. That shift has weighed heavily on the Tech sector and companies that flourished during the pandemic. While many solid companies that have been sold recently will eventually go on to make new highs as the recovery broadens, a number of…

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Investors Envision a Reopened Economy

Investors Envision a Reopened Economy This week, we find ourselves a year removed from the onset of the pandemic and the hyper-speed bear market decline that resulted. We’re also a few weeks short of the one-year anniversary of the bull market that followed. Things happened fast in 2020, including the development of vaccines that now offer a glimpse of what post-pandemic life will look like in 2021. The economy is accelerating and has broadened its resurgence in the last few…

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CJ Update – February 26, 2021

Investors Rebalance While Washington Dithers It’s been a noise-worthy (not newsworthy) couple of weeks since our last update. In the aftermath of the much-publicized “Trading Frenzy”, it was determined that a number of gullible and impulsive traders lost money speculating on stocks. Losers in the stock market? Shocking. Definitely not a first, but apparently news to some in Congress who feel compelled to save people from their own worst instincts. The House Financial Services Committee launched a televised hearing last…

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CJ Update – February 12, 2021

Investors Remain Focused on the Relevant When we last left you, the R & R crowd (Reddit and Robinhood) had roiled the stock market, launching several hedge funds and brokerage entities into existential crisis. Politicians were predictably incensed and promised to punish those that were manipulating the stock market with another round of regulations. That fiction distracted them from their immediate task to dispense $1.9 trillion in stimulus to a waiting audience. Jumping ahead, the short squeeze has unwound, leaving…

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CJ Update – January 29, 2021

The Retail Trade Scores a Rare Win on Wall Street The Retail Trade, comprised of individual investors, has usually come out on the short end when competing with the Big Money on Wall Street. The Big Money is defined as the major investment firms, banks, and hedge funds that employ financial engineering, high-speed trading, and algorithmic science to move the markets in a desired direction. As investors for whom fundamentals matter, we’ve frequently lamented the inexorable transformation of the stock…

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CJ Update – January 8, 2021

Investors Focus on Policy, Not Politics The stock market opened the New Year with a thud rather than a bang. Monday’s sell-off could be ascribed to uncertainty surrounding the Senate election in Georgia that could impart a significant change in current US fiscal policy. Adding to the suspense is the dramatic surge in COVID cases and hospitalizations, coupled with a slower than expected vaccination rate. Monday’s unexpected election result officially ceded control of Congress to the Democrats and confirmed the…

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CJ Update – December 24th, 2020

Ho, Ho, Ho, Santa Delivers Again to Investors This week began with the DOW plunging more than 400 points on Monday’s opening, only to see it close in positive territory with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ nursing only small declines. Tuesday’s results were mixed as well and could be attributed to the second stimulus package being volleyed back and forth between Congress and the White House to where it stands now: approved by the Senate and the House but threatened…

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CJ Update – December 18, 2020

Ho Hum, Another Record Setting Week for the Market As we go deeper into the holiday season, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the market quiet down a bit. 2018 and 2019 were exceptions as we saw a holiday blow-off and melt-up of the averages in those years, respectively. This year the stock market appears to be coasting into year-end on a high note, aided by momentum from a record November rally triggered by news of two COVID vaccines being…

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